Dubourdieu takes us through the 2011 vintage

For several years Professor Denis Dubourdieu (French wine critic, Professor at Bordeaux University and owner of Clos Floridene) has published a report on the coming en primeur vintage few weeks before the en primeur tasting week.

In his new report published this month [March 2012], Dubourdieu describes the potential of the 2011 vintage. Although the new vintage will not meet the quality level of the 2009 and 2010 vintages, most of the industry expects a relatively good vintage.
According to Dubourdieu, Bordeaux will produce a numerous magnificent red wines on both banks “despite unquestionable unevenness”.
He added the Right bank will enjoy some “magnificent Cabernet Francs” and the Left Bank will produce wines, which have “good structure thanks to remarkable Cabernet Sauvignon but volumes [during harvest] were unfortunately low”.
To conclude Dubourdieu was quite elogious on the 2011 Sauternes (e.g. Chateau d’ Yquem) describing the 2011 vintage produce under the prestigious appelation as simply “great”.

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35 year old American wine collector and millionaire Rudy Kurniawan has been arrested in Los Angeles accused of trying to sell US$1.3m worth of fake wine. He is also charged with fraudulantly obtaining millions of dollars worth of loans. His clientèle included the billionaire businessman and collector William I Koch, who is now suing the dealer for allegedly selling him counterfeit wine.

In 2008 Kurniawan tried to sell 84 bottles of Domaine Ponsot Burgundy. One bottle was labelled as a 1929 vintage but the estate didn't actually begin bottling until 1934. Prosecutors said a search of Mr Kurniawan's home had turned up materials which they claim were used in the counterfeiting of wine bottles.

Earlier this year when it was alleged that dozens of lots of suspect Burgundy from Domaine de la Romanee-Conti, withdrawn from a London auction run by California auction house Spectrum and London merchant Vanquish, had been consigned by Kurniawan. The auction house categorically denied the bottles were from Kurniawan.

This week Mr Kurniawan was refused bail after prosecutors were concerned he might attempt to flee to his home country of Indonesia.

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http://crimsonfinewines.wordpress.com/2012/03/

Investors Looking To China for Fine Wine Returns

Amid the increasing economic gloom in the West, China could hold the key to increased returns for investors prepared to explore the Eastern markets as they grow in affluence and confidence.
Wine in China is seen as a symbol of a desirable and sophisticated urban lifestyle and is, at the top of the Chinese social hierarchy, a key status symbol. As the Chinese economy continued to boom between 2009 and 2010, China’s wine imports increased to 125.1 million cases, an increase of 34% in just a single year. In the fine wine market at present, it appears that it is the East that is buying while the West is investing. Approximately 50% of all fine wine purchased in the UK will be exported to China.
One of the reasons for the success of fine wine as an investment is its relative imperviousness to depreciation. A case of fine, first growth Bordeaux will hold its value even if the value of the sterling used to purchase it tumbles against the dollar or the yuan. Fine wine has on average offered a year on year return to investors of 13% with less susceptibility to fluctuation than equities. In the 2008 crisis, wine lost 20% of its value compared to a 25% drop in the price of oil and a 50% drop in equities.
Global wine consumption is expected to increase over the next few years and fine wine will make up about a quarter of the value of this consumption. Investors should generally limit themselves to wines with limited production capacity such as Bordeaux and Burgundy. Supply in these areas simply cannot rise to meet increased demand and therefore will continue to appreciate in value.


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Wine Investment 2012

The Parker 2009 scores have just come out, and I’d like to take the opportunity to give you all an update of these scores as well as our view about the market in general. Feel free to get back to me on any questions you have. If you have further opinions, do share them with me as well. Cheers and have a great day.


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WINE MARKET UPDATES 2012


Summary

• Robert Parker gave 100 pts to an unprecedented 19 wines from the 2009 vintage, including Super Seconds like Cos d’Estournel, Montrose and Leoville-Poyferre.
• The 2009 vintage has earned more 100 pointers than the great vintages of 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2005 combined.
• According to Parker, 2009 is “unquestionably the greatest Bordeaux vintage I have ever tasted.” He added that it is “the greatest vintage I have tasted in Bordeaux since 1982, of which it is a modern-day version, but greatly improved.”
• As expected, the wine market is going through a rebound since January 2012.
• The 2009 prices are already on the move and are becoming increasingly hard to obtain in the market. We predict that the 2010 vintage will go through a similar trend.
• Our recommendation is to start looking at brands that faired well in the 2009 vintage, rather than just the vintage itself.

Parker on 2009: “The greatest Bordeaux vintage I have ever tasted”
Robert Parker’s in bottle scores for 2009 Bordeaux are finally released, confirming the vintage as one of the top Bordeaux vintages of the century. According to Parker, the 2009 is “unquestionably the greatest Bordeaux vintage I have ever tasted.”

The 100-pointers:

Wine	En Primeur Score	Bottled Score
Beausejour (Duffau Lagarrosse)	96-98+	100
Bellevue Mondotte	95-100	100
Clinet	97-100	100
Clos Fourtet	95-98	100
Cos d'Estournel	98-100*	100
Ducru Beaucaillou	96-98+	100
Haut Brion	98-100	100
La Mission Haut Brion	98-100	100
La Mondotte	95-98+	100
Latour	98-100	100
Le Pin	95-98	100
Leoville-Poyferre	97-100*	100
L'Evangile	96-100*	100
Montrose	96-100*	100
Pape Clement Blanc	94-97	100
Pavie	96-100	100
Petrus	96-100	100
Pontet-Canet	97-100	100
Smith-Haut-Lafite	96-98+*	100

Other wines that earned top Parker scores:

Wine	EP Score	Bottled Score
Angelus	96-100	99
Ausone	95-97+	98+
Cheval Blanc	98-100	99
Clos l'Eglise	96-100*	98
L'Eglise Clinet	98-100	99+
Haut Bailly	96-98+	98+
Haut Brion Blanc	96-100	98+
Hosanna	98-100*	99
La Mission Haut Brion Blanc	96-100	96
Lafite	98-100	99+
Leoville Las Cases	96-100	98+
Lynch Bages	94-96+	98
Pichon Baron	93-95	98
Palmer	94-96	97
Margaux	98-100	99
Mouton	96-98+	99+
Trotanoy	97-100*	98+

Market Rebound since January 2012
As we predicted in our January report, the wine market overall has rebounded in 2012 (see Liv-Ex 50 chat below). It seems to be following the same pattern as 2008, making now the best time to enter the market since Jan 2009.

The wine market experienced a correction of an average 17% decrease last year amidst the EuroZone crisis. However, as Asian buyers (in particular those from China and Hong Kong) are snapping up the last of bargain stocks out of the market this is just the beginning of an upward trend which will continue this year.



Planning Ahead for the 2010 Vintage
With the added boost from the recently re-scored 2009 vintage, the wine market looks positive. Those who were sitting on the fence when the prices peaked last summer should consider getting re-involved.

As 2009 becomes increasingly hard to find on the market, our suggestion is for investors to plan ahead and get into the 2010 vintage. After all, Bordeaux 2010 is already known to be an exceptional vintage, just like the 2009s. Given that the 2011 vintage is already reported to be less than stellar, it should come as no surprise to us when 2010 prices will start to move soon as well, and we should take advantage of their current prices which are now selling below the 2009s.


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Fine Wines Investments on the up

They were expected to be high, but the 2009 scores released on March 1 by Robert Parker have exceeded the highest expectations.

"Not a myth but mythical" is Parker's subtitle for his Bordeaux 2009 review. Indeed. He goes on to say "In short, 2009 is the greatest vintage I have tasted in Bordeaux since 1982". He backs this up by awarding no less than 18 Bordeaux reds, and 1 white, the perfect score of 100 points.



To put the number of 18 in perspective, have a look at below table, that lists the 100 pointers of the most successful vintages since 1982, 

Robert Parker's most successful vintages

1982	6
1996	1
2000	6
2003	3
2005	2
2009	18

2009 boasts an astonishing number of perfect scores. Is this Parker's farewell, to complete the cycle that he started in 1982 (the vintage that made him), never to be surpassed? Here's the full list, including the "barrel" score:

Parker's 2009 Bordeaux 100 pointers

wine	bottle	barrel
Beausejour Duffau Lagarosse	100	96-98
Bellevue Mondot	100	95-100
Clinet	100	97-100
Clos Fourtet	100	95-98
Cos d'Estournel	100	98-100
Ducru Beaucaillou	100	96-98
L'Evangile	100	96-100
Haut Brion	100	96-100
La Mission Haut Brion	100	98-100
La Mondotte	100	95-98
Latour	100	98-100
Le Pin	100	95-98
Leoville Poyferre	100	97-100
Montrose	100	96-100
Pavie	100	96-100
Petrus	100	96-100
Pontet Canet	100	97-100
Smith Haut Lafitte	100	96-98

From barrel, Parker awarded 21 wines a potential 100 points. Out of these 21, 12 indeed received full marks. The remaining 9 got at least 98. Interestingly, there were also 6 wines that got upgraded to the perfect score whilst the barrel score range did not reach 100 (see above).
Looking beyond the top scoring Chateaux, there are an incredible number of wines that score 95 points or more, many of which make unbelievable value for money. Do revisit our list – once we have had the time, we will be offering some of those gems that are a must buy to drink.

Bordeaux 2009 scoring 95 plus (reds only)

99	11
98	14
97	6
96	10
95	16

It goes too far, in this blogpost, to list all of the above wines. I would urge you though to get in touch with us – some of these 95-99 pointers represent the best buys.
Although there had been substantial price movements prior to Parker releasing his scores, it goes without saying that there were massive price hikes when the scores came out. Particularly for the 100 pointers, on which below table focusses. It needs to be pointed out though that the "after" prices might still change significantly, as the market has yet to find its new prices. The "prior" prices are as of the day before the new scores came out, the "after" prices are as of today (March 3rd).

2009 movers and shakers

Wine	prior	after	% change
Beausejour Duffau Lagarosse	£1,000	£2,400	140%
Clos Fourtet	£750	£1,800	140%
Smith Haut Lafitte	£680	£1,600	135%
Clinet	£1,500	£2,200	47%
Le Pin	£18,000	£25,000	39%
Montrose	£1,900	£2,550	34%
Leoville Poyferre	£1,350	£1,800	33%
Pontet Canet	£1,350	£1,800	33%
L'Evangile	£2,300	£2,750	20%
La Mondotte	£2,550	£3,000	18%
Petrus	£25,000	£29,000	16%
Cos d'Estournel	£2,800	£3,200	14%
Pavie	£2,200	£2,500	14%
Ducru Beaucaillou	£2,000	£2,200	10%
Haut Brion	£7,400	£8,000	8%
Bellevue Mondotte	£2,550	£2,750	8%
La Mission Haut Brion	£5,600	£6,000	7%
Latour	£11,700	£11,800	1%

Are these prices the right prices? Overshooting? Underperforming? Is the fine wine market efficient enough to quickly adjust to the new information, or is there scope for arbitrage? What is the right price level for a 100 pointer? Nobody knows, really. And that's why there's an enormous amount of trading going on. Taking position, selling on the hype, holding on, buying with a long term view – it's all part of the spiel. There will be a lot more analyses done to determine the new values, now that Bob has spoken. Do get in touch if you would like to hear our views. Views based on trading these wines daily – we know what's going on.
There are quite a few wine critics that publicly proclaim Parker has lost his marbles. However, none of them have the track record that Parker has and none of them have the influence that Parker has. Therefore, we can safely ignore what they say, when it comes to the effect on pricing.
When it comes to drinking, you will have to choose which wine reviewer is most aligned with your personal taste. Bordeaux 2009 is a unique vintage, and has just been awarded stardom, so if you were planning on buying some, do so now before prices are out of reach. There are many, many wines that should be part of your cellar.


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